JUNGLE BOYS TOURNEY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

By Eddie Pelkey

Pelkey is the FDMSAA President and former FD basketball coach. He previews the Maroon Division.

After two weeks of pool play – and lots of beer and food – the 2024 FDMSAA Alumni Basketball Tournament—Jungle Boys—hosted by the class of 2014 is gearing up for the playoffs starting this weekend.

Just like the NCAA’s March Madness, the boys of Duenas play a single-elimination tournament to crown their champion. There are two divisions: Gold (2003 and older) and Maroon (2004 and younger).

(Viewers note: playoffs are semi-seeded, and matchups are based on a variety of factors: player availability, skill matchup, pool play record, classes that haven’t played each other, etc. I want best on best…period.  If your intent is to win the thing, then go out and win it!  It doesn’t matter who you play, or when you play them.  If you say you’re going to win, then go win!)

The First Two

2024 vs. 2023

The opening game pits the two youngest classes that have found early success. ‘24’sTobias Quitugua and Melo Romero have steadied the new graduates, and Phil Guerrero’s return will be a huge help. But 23’s Blaise Ada and Yoshi Sayama have lit up this tournament, and I don’t see that stopping in this game. Expect 2023 to continue building on the momentum from pool play and breeze into the next round.

Prediction: 72-54, 2023 advances

2020 vs. 2022

Last year, 2022 began their improbable run to the championship by upsetting 2020, who had made it to the championship the year before. But 2022 has again struggled through pool play. EJ Acda and Kai Stettenbenz have done what they can, but not having Evan Brown and Kaine Santos has hurt more than they expected. 2020 still has Matt Fegurgur, but will he play now that floor general Colin Santiago has left and will not be available for the playoffs? I believe he will. I believe he has too much pride to see his boys go down in the first round. Raymond Castro has been a steady presence, and Elijah Dudkiewicz adds additional size to one of the tourney’s biggest frontcourts. But Fegurgur will be the difference.

Prediction: 58-49, 2020 advances

The Round of 16

2011 vs. 2023

This game will be a laugher. 2011 will try to roughhouse their way to victory, but 23’s Ada and Sayama are too skillful and tough to back down. 2023 will bury 2011 early with deep bombs and then have fun the rest of the way.

Prediction: 82-48, 2023 advances

2018/19 vs. 2010

As expected, the new combined class of 18/19 has struggled through pool play. Tony Quinene, Davin Rojas, and Brandon Soriano have been steady, but Kyle Gaitan has been inconsistent with his play. Gaitan can’t be held down for too long. If he’s available, he will be the difference maker.  2010 is a tough team that can’t be taken lightly. On paper, Chris ‘Olei’ Ueki may look like the only basketball player, but Robbie LG, John Camacho, and company have shown that they compete with the best, losing most of their games by single digits. Youth will be a factor, and if 18/19 can keep their cool against one of the more physical teams in the tourney, they should be able to secure a victory against their older opponents. But if they get intimidated, Olei and company could steal a playoff win. This one will be closer than most think.

Prediction: 57-53, 2018/19 advances

2013 vs. 2021

Let’s face it…the defending champs have struggled…big time! I didn’t expect the loss of Jon Onedera to be as big, especially with Mike Sakazaki in good basketball shape, but 2013 has not looked the same. John Baza has been inconsistent, and Jordan Guevara looks like he tries to do too much to make up for the loss of Onedera. Matt Santos has continued to steady 2021, but outside of him, they don’t have much offensive firepower. Expect Baza to find his groove in the playoffs and Sakazaki to assert himself in the post a little more frequently to create the inside-out game they have been accustomed to. Experience will matter, and 2013 has tons of it. 

Prediction: 62-49, 2013 advances

2005 vs. 2008/09

The return of Neil Limbo gives 2005 some ball handling and offensive firepower on the open floor. Johnny Sablan, Jr, and Craig Bothello continue to throw up shots from deep, but they just don’t fall as they used to. Like Sakazaki, Neil Espino plays more outside than around the paint these days. Chris Sgro has a great athletic body that brings defense and rebounding, but he has missed a few games. Espino will need to play big for 2005 to have a chance. 2009’s Dom Sablan has been solid throughout the tourney. The pairing with him and 2008’s Jason Baza has been fun to watch, and if the two continue to grow their chemistry, they will be a tough 1-2 punch to knockout. Kevin Javier brings a deep threat to pair with Sablan’s and Baza’s offensive prowess. Expect Sablan’s experience to surface and lead his team past a scrappy 2005 bunch.

Prediction: 54-50, 2008/09 advances

2007 vs. 2014

The host class has had an up-and-down tourney. Deion Valencia and both Christian Changs will continue to carry the load. But outside of that, it will be tough for this year’s hosts to generate offensive firepower. 2007 is a defensive powerhouse in their zone…nothing comes easy.  Brandon Duenas returned and, after winning Da Prez’ half-court shot contest, has been a good offensive addition. Matt Sgro, James ‘Budoki’ Camacho, Albert Sanga, and company continue to play valuable roles on both ends of the floor, but a recent injury to floor leader and leading scorer Jude Martinez may be tough to overcome. There is no doubt that 2007 can defend just about any team in the tourney, but the big question is how do they find points with Martinez out? How much will the fatigue of hosting the tournament play a factor for 2014? This is a tough one, but I think the size of Big Chang will be the difference.    

Prediction: 48-46, 2014 advances

2006 vs. 12 Pack

This is THE game of the round of 16! These two teams played each other for the opening games of pool play, where the 8-time champs squeaked out an 86-82 victory. There is no shortness of offensive firepower on either side. 2006 Juluis Yu can still light it up, Mike Sgro has been consistent, and Rob LG and Brian Aflague have also pulled extra weight in their pool play success thus far. Andres Reyes will return for the playoffs, but the type of basketball shape he’ll be in remains to be seen. Plus, Yu and Sgro didn’t look right in their final pool play game. 

2012’s John Ilao will lead this team into battle once again. He missed the first matchup and is eager to get another shot at the 8-time champs! Glenn Gogue and Cam Eusebio continue to put up points, although Jerick Cruz’s mid-range game has been inconsistent. The 12 Pack lost a tight one to 2006 without Ilao, then beat their rivals of 2013 and 2011, before getting destroyed by 2016/17. That inconsistent play scares me. 2006 is not as healthy as it can be, with both Yu and Sgro nursing injuries. Ilao will be at this one, but so will Reyes. I’ll give the younger one the edge, along with his team.  

Prediction: 65-61, 12 Pack advances

2015 vs. 2016/17

After being embarrassed by a less-than-full 2020 squad on opening night, 2016/17 has thrown up emphatic victories against 2023, 2013, and the 12 Pack, all contenders. I don’t see any of that stopping in this game. The evolution of Devin Sudo has been fun to watch, and the emergence of Leon Shimizu has worked well for this combo. Brandon Eusebio has proven he is the best post player in the tournament and when 16/17 needs a bucket down low, they are not afraid to feed him. Frankie Tenorio has proven that he can blow a game open if you give him too many clean looks. 16’s RJ Rokop is back, and as I said before this tournament started, he is their steadying body. How he and Sudo co-exist remains to be seen, but in this game, it won’t matter as much as 2015 has struggled, being their first year playing solo in a while. 16/17’s depth will be too much for next year’s host to overcome.

Prediction: 78-51, 2016/17 advances

The Elite 8 

2023 vs. 2018/19

Let the fireworks begin! This game will be a track meet, as both teams love to get out in the open floor and attack the rim to finish or kick to open shooters. 2018/19 has more depth, but again, how much they have gelled in five games remains a question. 23’s Yoshi Sayama has arguably been the best player in the tournament, and I don’t expect him to slow down. 23’s Blaise Ada will be right there with him.19’s Tony Quinene will be up to the challenge, but can Rojas and Soriano give enough firepower to support him? 

2023’s biggest weakness is size, as Alucious Medler (Big Mike) is their only true big man. That’s a space where 18’s Kyle Gaitan can dominate. How effective Gaitan is could be the determining factor. But as good as Sayama’s been all tournament, I expect Ada to shine in this game. This game will have a lot of chatter, and that will only feed the quiet Ada, who will let his game do the talking. Gaitan and Quinene will keep it close, but Ada will have the last word.  

Prediction: 72-70, 2023 advances

2013 vs. 2008/09

The defending champs continue their march to defend their title, but an upstart 08/09 team stands in their way. On paper, 2013 should run away with this, but 09’s Dom Sablan won’t let that happen. He’ll keep this game close, but 13’s Jordan Guevara will be up to the task. 

Guevara, along with Baza, show out as the lights get brighter, and I don’t expect a letdown, especially after a sub-par pool play performance. 08’s Jason Baza will do his best to provide offensive support to Sablan, but the depth and experience of ’13 will break through as the game comes to its end. The game will be close, but 13’s John Baza is the ultimate closer, and I fully expect him to shut the door on the new combo when the game is on the line.

Prediction: 62-58, 2013 advances

2002/2004 vs. 2014

2004 won the title, solo, when they hosted on their 10-year. Last year, 2013 repeated the feat.  This year, 2014’s Cinderella story will end in this game.  Valencia, Changs, and the company will put in a valiant effort. But in the end, Shaun Perez will bury the hosts. I fully expect Stinnett and Estella to defer to Perez and save some energy for the next round(s), and Perez will be more than up to the challenge. A valiant effort from the host class will fall short once the final buzzer sounds. Perez and company will force them to focus on the remaining days of hosting without distraction.

Prediction: 71-56, 2002/2004 advances

2012 vs. 2016/17

These two teams met in pool play, and 2016/17 destroyed the 12 Pack from the beginning. 16’s Devin Sudo has yet to make his mark this tournament, and I expect him to do so in this game. He has taken an admirable “team” approach, but this is the game where he needs to shine. Ilao will attempt to control the pace, but Cam Eusebio and Glenn Gogue need to hit consistently from outside to have a fighting chance. I just don’t see that happening; given the pace 16/17 will force the 12 Pack to play. Frankie Tenorio will provide the offense early with Shimizu, but Sudo will take over late. The 12 Pack won’t quit, but it won’t matter in the end.     

Prediction: 68-61, 2016/17 advances

The Final Four

2023 vs. 2013

A rematch of the highlight game on opening night will be the first of our semifinal matchups. In an exciting back-and-forth affair two weeks ago, the young bucks of ’23 were able to squeeze out a 73-69 victory. But their run will end here! 

Sayama and Ada will do everything to keep the offense flowing, but there is one thing that most teams need to win championships in this tournament: experience. 2013 has lots of it. They will learn from the first loss, and as I have stated all tournament, ‘23’s biggest liability is its lack of size…and ’13 has lots of it. Additionally, point guard Jordan Guevara did not play in the first meeting but will be available for this one. 

And experience says he will slow the game down and force ’23 to make possessions count. Mike Sakazaki will have his best game of the tourney, while John Baza will be true to form. Sayama and Ada will race out early, but once ’13 settles in, the game will slow, and the defending champs will find their way back once again in the big game.       

Prediction: 67-62, 2013 advances

2002/2004 vs. 2016/17

Boys and girls, get your popcorn ready because this game will get chippy! Both these teams have met in some shape or form over the last five years, and all the games have been fireworks.This game will be no different. 

02’s Vince Estella and ‘04’s Willie Stinnett will assert themselves early in this one, with ‘02’s Shaun Perez adding the offensive firepower. 2002/2004 thrive on their size, but in this game, they will not have that advantage. 2016’s Cole Merfalen, Brandon Eusebio, and Shimizu will make things more challenging in the paint, which means 02/04 will have to hit consistently from outside. 

16/17 has the youth factor, and Zay Sablan, Devin Sudo, and Bryton Cepeda cover a lot of ground on the perimeter, so the looks won’t come as cleanly as in previous games. 16/17 will want to make this track meet to wear down their older foes, and at some point, 02/04 will be forced to oblige. 04’s Napolean Finch and Ricky Hernandez are capable deep threats, but the speed of 16/17 on the perimeter will keep them one-dimensional. 04’s Matt LG will do his best to slow the game down but expect the younger boys to extend their defense a little and force 02/04 to play at a faster speed than they would like. 

2016 has been a talented group that has fallen short of expectations year after year. They just knocked off the 8-time champs, and I fully expect them to take down the powerhouse 02/04 in a barn burner to get back to the championship and chase the ever-elusive first title!

Prediction: 67-65, 2016/17 advances

The CHAMPIONSHIP

2013 vs. 2016/17

It’s been a few years since we last had back-to-back champs. 2006 did it in 2012 and 2013, then again bridging the Covid year in 2019 and 2021. 02/04 did it in 2017 and 2018. It’s extremely hard to win this championship. It’s much, much harder to go back-to-back. And I don’t expect that to happen this year. 

2016/17, after getting embarrassed on opening night, has run off win after win in dominant fashion. And under the bright lights and in front of the most energetic crowd on the island, their time will finally come! The maturity of Devin Sudo, the addition of Leon Shimizu, the dynamic shooting of Frankie Tenorio and Zay Sablan, the hustle and dirty work of Bryton Cepeda, the return of RJ Rokop and the inside power of Cole Merfalen and Brandon Eusebio will finally taste glory. John Baza, Mike Sakazaki, Jordan Guevara, and company will do everything they can to keep this close, but in the end, the depth of 16/17 will take its toll. The label of being one of the most disappointing teams will finally be removed, and the young stalwarts will join the ranks of champions!  

Prediction: 71-66, 2016/17 wins it all!